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EBK vs Töölön Taisto — Suomen Cup 2018

EBK
EBK
FT
1 – 2
Töölön Taisto
Töölön Taisto
3/31/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKeski-Espoo 2 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

EBK41%
×Draw19%
Töölön Taisto39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EBK
2.42
Töölön Taisto
2.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

EBK
3.71
Töölön Taisto
2.86

allows per match

EBK
1.86
Töölön Taisto
1.14

finishing

EBK+0.00on par
Töölön Taisto+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EBK ↓

Töölön Taisto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

EBK or draw
61%
EBK or Töölön Taisto
81%
Draw or Töölön Taisto
59%

Winning margin

EBK wins by 2+
24%
Töölön Taisto wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

EBK 1+ goals
91%
EBK 2+ goals
69%
EBK 3+ goals
43%
Töölön Taisto 1+ goals
90%
Töölön Taisto 2+ goals
68%
Töölön Taisto 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

EBK (draw refunded)
51%
Töölön Taisto (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EBK at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Töölön Taisto away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EBK attack 3.71 + Töölön Taisto defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.42

Töölön Taisto attack 2.86 + EBK defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

EBK scores more
41%
level
19%
Töölön Taisto scores more
39%

EBK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "EBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: EBK 1–2 Töölön Taisto

Töölön Taisto beat EBK 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Keski-Espoo 2 TN in Espoo.