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EBK vs TiPS — Suomen Cup 2018

EBK
EBK
Pens
4 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
TiPS
TiPS
3/28/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKeski-Espoo 2 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

EBK25%
×Draw16%
TiPS59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EBK
2.85
TiPS
4.30

TiPS creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

EBK
3.71
TiPS
6.75

allows per match

EBK
1.86
TiPS
2.00

finishing

EBK+0.00on par
TiPS+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

93%Yes
  • Yes93
  • No7

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EBK ↓

TiPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–34%
1–44%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–44%

Most likely 2–3 (5%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
91%9%4.5
81%19%

Double chance

EBK or draw
41%
EBK or TiPS
84%
Draw or TiPS
75%

Winning margin

EBK wins by 2+
13%
TiPS wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

EBK 1+ goals
94%
EBK 2+ goals
77%
EBK 3+ goals
53%
TiPS 1+ goals
98%
TiPS 2+ goals
92%
TiPS 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

EBK (draw refunded)
29%
TiPS (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
91%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EBK at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

TiPS away — creates 6.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EBK attack 3.71 + TiPS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.85

TiPS attack 6.75 + EBK defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 4.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

EBK scores more
25%
level
16%
TiPS scores more
59%

TiPS at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "TiPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EBK vs TiPS

EBK and TiPS drew 4-4 in Suomen Cup on March 28, 2022.

The match was played at Keski-Espoo 2 TN in Espoo.