Ebbsfleet United W 1–2 Saltdean United W

Ebbsfleet United W

1 – 2

Saltdean United W

10/13/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingKuflink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ebbsfleet United W36%

×Draw19%

Saltdean United W45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebbsfleet United WExpected goals in this matchSaltdean United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.50

Ebbsfleet United W

2.25

Saltdean United W

2.50

Saltdean United W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

3.00

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Ebbsfleet United W

2.00

Saltdean United W

2.00

allows per match

Ebbsfleet United W

3.00

Saltdean United W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebbsfleet United W+0.00on par

Saltdean United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebbsfleet United W ↓

Saltdean United W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Ebbsfleet United W or draw

55%

Ebbsfleet United W or Saltdean United W

81%

Draw or Saltdean United W

64%

Winning margin

Ebbsfleet United W wins by 2+

20%

Saltdean United W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ebbsfleet United W 1+ goals

89%

Ebbsfleet United W 2+ goals

65%

Ebbsfleet United W 3+ goals

39%

Saltdean United W 1+ goals

92%

Saltdean United W 2+ goals

71%

Saltdean United W 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Ebbsfleet United W (draw refunded)

45%

Saltdean United W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ebbsfleet United W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Saltdean United W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ebbsfleet United W attack 2.00 + Saltdean United W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Saltdean United W attack 2.00 + Ebbsfleet United W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ebbsfleet United W scores more

36%

level

19%

Saltdean United W scores more

45%

Saltdean United W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saltdean United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff