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Ebbs vs Zams — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Ebbs
Ebbs
FT
6 – 0
Zams
Zams
10/18/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 12apato sport Arena Ebbs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ebbs70%
×Draw16%
Zams14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebbs
2.73
Zams
1.13

Ebbs creates 142% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ebbs
2.14
Zams
0.86

allows per match

Ebbs
1.40
Zams
3.31

finishing

Ebbs+0.00on par
Zams+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebbs ↓

Zams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ebbs or draw
86%
Ebbs or Zams
84%
Draw or Zams
30%

Winning margin

Ebbs wins by 2+
49%
Zams wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ebbs 1+ goals
93%
Ebbs 2+ goals
75%
Ebbs 3+ goals
50%
Zams 1+ goals
68%
Zams 2+ goals
31%
Zams 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ebbs (draw refunded)
84%
Zams (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebbs at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.40 · 87 matches

Zams away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebbs attack 2.14 + Zams defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.73

Zams attack 0.86 + Ebbs defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ebbs scores more
70%
level
16%
Zams scores more
14%

Ebbs at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ebbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ebbs vs Zams

Ebbs beat Zams 6-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at apato sport Arena Ebbs in Ebbs.