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Ebbs vs Söll — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Ebbs
Ebbs
CANC
22:00
Söll
Söll
5/15/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 24apato sport Arena Ebbs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ebbs74%
×Draw14%
Söll12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebbs
3.07
Söll
1.17

Ebbs creates 162% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ebbs
2.14
Söll
0.94

allows per match

Ebbs
1.40
Söll
4.00

finishing

Ebbs+0.00on par
Söll+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebbs ↓

Söll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Ebbs or draw
88%
Ebbs or Söll
86%
Draw or Söll
26%

Winning margin

Ebbs wins by 2+
55%
Söll wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ebbs 1+ goals
95%
Ebbs 2+ goals
80%
Ebbs 3+ goals
58%
Söll 1+ goals
69%
Söll 2+ goals
33%
Söll 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ebbs (draw refunded)
86%
Söll (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebbs at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.40 · 87 matches

Söll away — creates 0.94, concedes 4.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebbs attack 2.14 + Söll defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.07

Söll attack 0.94 + Ebbs defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Ebbs scores more
74%
level
14%
Söll scores more
12%

Ebbs at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Ebbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ebbs face Söll (Landesliga - Tirol)

Landesliga - Tirol returns with Ebbs hosting Söll. Match starts May 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ebbs host Söll at apato sport Arena Ebbs.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.