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Ebbs vs Natters — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Ebbs
Ebbs
CANC
00:00
Natters
Natters
6/5/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 29apato sport Arena Ebbs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ebbs53%
×Draw21%
Natters26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebbs
2.16
Natters
1.48

Ebbs creates 46% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 44 away

creates per match

Ebbs
2.14
Natters
1.55

allows per match

Ebbs
1.40
Natters
2.18

finishing

Ebbs+0.00on par
Natters+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebbs ↓

Natters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ebbs or draw
74%
Ebbs or Natters
79%
Draw or Natters
47%

Winning margin

Ebbs wins by 2+
32%
Natters wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ebbs 1+ goals
88%
Ebbs 2+ goals
63%
Ebbs 3+ goals
36%
Natters 1+ goals
77%
Natters 2+ goals
43%
Natters 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ebbs (draw refunded)
67%
Natters (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebbs at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.40 · 87 matches

Natters away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebbs attack 2.14 + Natters defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.16

Natters attack 1.55 + Ebbs defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ebbs scores more
53%
level
21%
Natters scores more
26%

Ebbs at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ebbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ebbs vs Natters — Match Preview

Ebbs face Natters on June 5, 2021 in this Landesliga - Tirol fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ebbs host Natters at apato sport Arena Ebbs.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.