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Ebbs vs Mayrhofen — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Ebbs
Ebbs
FT
2 – 1
Mayrhofen
Mayrhofen
10/29/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 15Glonner Arena Ebbs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebbs55%
×Draw19%
Mayrhofen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebbs
2.47
Mayrhofen
1.67

Ebbs creates 48% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ebbs
2.14
Mayrhofen
1.93

allows per match

Ebbs
1.40
Mayrhofen
2.80

finishing

Ebbs+0.00on par
Mayrhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebbs ↓

Mayrhofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Ebbs or draw
74%
Ebbs or Mayrhofen
81%
Draw or Mayrhofen
45%

Winning margin

Ebbs wins by 2+
35%
Mayrhofen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ebbs 1+ goals
91%
Ebbs 2+ goals
70%
Ebbs 3+ goals
44%
Mayrhofen 1+ goals
81%
Mayrhofen 2+ goals
50%
Mayrhofen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ebbs (draw refunded)
68%
Mayrhofen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebbs at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.40 · 87 matches

Mayrhofen away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebbs attack 2.14 + Mayrhofen defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.47

Mayrhofen attack 1.93 + Ebbs defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ebbs scores more
55%
level
19%
Mayrhofen scores more
26%

Ebbs at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ebbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Ebbs 2–1 Mayrhofen

Ebbs beat Mayrhofen 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Glonner Arena Ebbs in Ebbs.