Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ebbs vs Innsbrucker AC — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Ebbs
Ebbs
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Innsbrucker AC
Innsbrucker AC
3/29/2026Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 15Glonner Arena Ebbs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Ebbs45%
×Draw22%
Innsbrucker AC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebbs
1.97
Innsbrucker AC
1.69

Ebbs creates 17% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ebbs
2.14
Innsbrucker AC
1.97

allows per match

Ebbs
1.40
Innsbrucker AC
1.79

finishing

Ebbs+0.00on par
Innsbrucker AC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebbs ↓

Innsbrucker AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ebbs or draw
66%
Ebbs or Innsbrucker AC
78%
Draw or Innsbrucker AC
55%

Winning margin

Ebbs wins by 2+
25%
Innsbrucker AC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ebbs 1+ goals
86%
Ebbs 2+ goals
58%
Ebbs 3+ goals
31%
Innsbrucker AC 1+ goals
82%
Innsbrucker AC 2+ goals
50%
Innsbrucker AC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ebbs (draw refunded)
57%
Innsbrucker AC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebbs at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.40 · 87 matches

Innsbrucker AC away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.79 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebbs attack 2.14 + Innsbrucker AC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.97

Innsbrucker AC attack 1.97 + Ebbs defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ebbs scores more
45%
level
22%
Innsbrucker AC scores more
34%

Ebbs at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ebbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Ebbs 3–0 Innsbrucker AC

Ebbs beat Innsbrucker AC 3-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Glonner Arena Ebbs in Ebbs.