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Eastleigh vs Valenciennes — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Eastleigh
Eastleigh
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Valenciennes
Valenciennes
V. Marcel 89', 78'
M. Rouai 32'
7/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eastleigh6%
×Draw11%
Valenciennes83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastleigh
0.79
Valenciennes
3.17

Valenciennes creates 301% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Eastleigh
0.67
Valenciennes
2.00

allows per match

Eastleigh
4.33
Valenciennes
0.90

finishing

Eastleigh+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastleigh ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Eastleigh or draw
17%
Eastleigh or Valenciennes
89%
Draw or Valenciennes
94%

Winning margin

Eastleigh wins by 2+
2%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Eastleigh 1+ goals
55%
Eastleigh 2+ goals
19%
Eastleigh 3+ goals
5%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
96%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
82%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Eastleigh (draw refunded)
7%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastleigh at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastleigh attack 0.67 + Valenciennes defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Valenciennes attack 2.00 + Eastleigh defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Eastleigh scores more
6%
level
11%
Valenciennes scores more
83%

Valenciennes at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
M. Rouai
78'
V. Marcel
89'
V. Marcel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eastleigh vs Valenciennes

Valenciennes beat Eastleigh 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 22, 2026.

Goals: M. Rouai (32'), V. Marcel (78', 89').