Eastleigh 0–2 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Eastleigh

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sutton Utd

B. Njoku 80'

K. Jennings 13'

3/24/2026

League #43 · Round 40Silverlake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eastleigh24%

×Draw21%

Sutton Utd55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EastleighExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.04

Eastleigh

1.27

Sutton Utd

2.04

Sutton Utd creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 45 away

1.33

creates per match

1.24

2.83

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Eastleigh

1.33

Sutton Utd

1.24

allows per match

Eastleigh

2.83

Sutton Utd

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastleigh+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastleigh ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Eastleigh or draw

45%

Eastleigh or Sutton Utd

79%

Draw or Sutton Utd

76%

Winning margin

Eastleigh wins by 2+

10%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Eastleigh 1+ goals

72%

Eastleigh 2+ goals

36%

Eastleigh 3+ goals

14%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

87%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

60%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Eastleigh (draw refunded)

30%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastleigh at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastleigh attack 1.33 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + Eastleigh defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eastleigh scores more

24%

level

21%

Sutton Utd scores more

55%

Sutton Utd at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

N. Townsend

7'

J. McNamara← K. Evans

13'

K. Jennings

21'

K. Donkor

29'

D. Urpens← K. Donkor

66'

A. Wariuh← I. Effiong

68'

D. Ogbonna← L. Simper

76'

H. Muller

78'

J. J. Harris← J. Taylor

80'

B. Njoku↳ D. Ogbonna

84'

J. Tabor← H. Saunders

84'

J. Waite← J. Cousins

Eastleigh

Sutton

1

Sims

50

▼

42

14

39

25

▼

Taylor

37

Bell

8

▼

Simper

28

⚽

Jennings

34

⚽

29

1

2

6

28

3

17

24

▼

Cousins

7

▼

Evans

15

▼

Saunders

21

▼

Effiong

11

Blair

7'▲J. McNamara←▼K. Evans

66'▲A. Wariuh←▼I. Effiong

84'▲J. Tabor←▼H. Saunders

84'▲J. Waite←▼J. Cousins

Eastleigh substitutes

22McNamara10Tabor14Waite18Wariuh29Bamey30Underhill35Killick

Manager: Jon Meeney

29'▲D. Urpens←▼K. Donkor

68'▲D. Ogbonna←▼L. Simper

78'▲J. J. Harris←▼J. Taylor

Sutton Utd substitutes

13Haigh9Rodari18Ogbonna23Harris36Urpens47Eze51Byron