Easthouses Lily 1–3 Threave Rovers: Result & Stats

Easthouses Lily

1 – 3

Threave Rovers

9/2/2023

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundNewbattle Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Easthouses Lily14%

×Draw14%

Threave Rovers72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Easthouses LilyExpected goals in this matchThreave Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

3.22

Easthouses Lily

1.39

Threave Rovers

3.22

Threave Rovers creates 132% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

0.67

creates per match

2.11

4.33

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Easthouses Lily

0.67

Threave Rovers

2.11

allows per match

Easthouses Lily

4.33

Threave Rovers

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Easthouses Lily+0.00on par

Threave Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Easthouses Lily ↓

Threave Rovers →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–36%

0–45%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–12%

3–22%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Easthouses Lily or draw

28%

Easthouses Lily or Threave Rovers

86%

Draw or Threave Rovers

86%

Winning margin

Easthouses Lily wins by 2+

Threave Rovers wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Easthouses Lily 1+ goals

75%

Easthouses Lily 2+ goals

40%

Easthouses Lily 3+ goals

16%

Threave Rovers 1+ goals

96%

Threave Rovers 2+ goals

82%

Threave Rovers 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Easthouses Lily (draw refunded)

16%

Threave Rovers (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Easthouses Lily at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Threave Rovers away — creates 2.11, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Easthouses Lily attack 0.67 + Threave Rovers defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Threave Rovers attack 2.11 + Easthouses Lily defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Easthouses Lily scores more

14%

level

14%

Threave Rovers scores more

72%

Threave Rovers at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Threave Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff