Eastern 2–3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Result & Stats

Eastern

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

10/3/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Mong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eastern13%

×Draw19%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EasternExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

2.23

Eastern

0.84

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2.23

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 165% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

0.89

creates per match

1.80

2.67

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Eastern

0.89

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.80

allows per match

Eastern

2.67

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern+0.00on par

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Eastern or draw

31%

Eastern or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

81%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

87%

Winning margin

Eastern wins by 2+

4%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Eastern 1+ goals

57%

Eastern 2+ goals

21%

Eastern 3+ goals

5%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

89%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

65%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Eastern (draw refunded)

16%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern attack 0.89 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.80 + Eastern defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Eastern scores more

13%

level

19%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

69%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff