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Eastern vs Ratchaburi — AFC Cup 2018

Eastern
Eastern
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 0
Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
11/5/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eastern19%
×Draw20%
Ratchaburi61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern
1.15
Ratchaburi
2.23

Ratchaburi creates 94% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Eastern
0.89
Ratchaburi
1.80

allows per match

Eastern
2.67
Ratchaburi
1.40

finishing

Eastern+0.00on par
Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern ↓

Ratchaburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Eastern or draw
39%
Eastern or Ratchaburi
80%
Draw or Ratchaburi
81%

Winning margin

Eastern wins by 2+
7%
Ratchaburi wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Eastern 1+ goals
68%
Eastern 2+ goals
32%
Eastern 3+ goals
11%
Ratchaburi 1+ goals
89%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
65%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Eastern (draw refunded)
23%
Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Ratchaburi away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern attack 0.89 + Ratchaburi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ratchaburi attack 1.80 + Eastern defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Eastern scores more
19%
level
20%
Ratchaburi scores more
61%

Ratchaburi at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Eastern 0–7 Ratchaburi

Ratchaburi beat Eastern 7-0 in AFC Cup on November 5, 2025.

The match was played at Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground in Hongkong.