Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eastern United vs Western Strikers — South Australia State League 1 2021

Eastern United
Eastern United
FT
2 – 1
Western Strikers
Western Strikers
8/21/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 18Athelstone Recreation Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Eastern United42%
×Draw24%
Western Strikers34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern United
1.63
Western Strikers
1.43

Eastern United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

Eastern United
1.31
Western Strikers
1.05

allows per match

Eastern United
1.81
Western Strikers
1.95

finishing

Eastern United+0.00on par
Western Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern United ↓

Western Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eastern United or draw
66%
Eastern United or Western Strikers
76%
Draw or Western Strikers
58%

Winning margin

Eastern United wins by 2+
22%
Western Strikers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Eastern United 1+ goals
80%
Eastern United 2+ goals
48%
Eastern United 3+ goals
22%
Western Strikers 1+ goals
76%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
42%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Eastern United (draw refunded)
56%
Western Strikers (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern United at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Western Strikers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern United attack 1.31 + Western Strikers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Western Strikers attack 1.05 + Eastern United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eastern United scores more
42%
level
24%
Western Strikers scores more
34%

Eastern United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eastern United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Eastern United 2–1 Western Strikers

Eastern United beat Western Strikers 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Athelstone Recreation Reserve in Athelstone.