Eastern United 1–2 West Adelaide: Result & Stats

Eastern United

FT

1 – 2

West Adelaide

4/23/2022

South Australia State League 1 · Round 8T.K. Shutter Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eastern United30%

×Draw24%

West Adelaide46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern UnitedExpected goals in this matchWest Adelaide

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.67

Eastern United

1.29

West Adelaide

1.67

West Adelaide creates 29% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 47 away

1.31

creates per match

1.53

1.81

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Eastern United

1.31

West Adelaide

1.53

allows per match

Eastern United

1.81

West Adelaide

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern United+0.00on par

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern United ↓

West Adelaide →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Eastern United or draw

54%

Eastern United or West Adelaide

76%

Draw or West Adelaide

70%

Winning margin

Eastern United wins by 2+

13%

West Adelaide wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Eastern United 1+ goals

72%

Eastern United 2+ goals

37%

Eastern United 3+ goals

14%

West Adelaide 1+ goals

81%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

50%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Eastern United (draw refunded)

39%

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern United at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern United attack 1.31 + West Adelaide defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

West Adelaide attack 1.53 + Eastern United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eastern United scores more

30%

level

24%

West Adelaide scores more

46%

West Adelaide at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff