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Eastern United vs Adelaide University — South Australia State League 1 2021

Eastern United
Eastern United
FT
2 – 1
Adelaide University
Adelaide University
3/27/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 5VALO Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eastern United45%
×Draw25%
Adelaide University30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern United
1.61
Adelaide University
1.27

Eastern United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

creates per match

Eastern United
1.31
Adelaide University
0.73

allows per match

Eastern United
1.81
Adelaide University
1.91

finishing

Eastern United+0.00on par
Adelaide University+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern United ↓

Adelaide University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eastern United or draw
70%
Eastern United or Adelaide University
75%
Draw or Adelaide University
55%

Winning margin

Eastern United wins by 2+
23%
Adelaide University wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eastern United 1+ goals
80%
Eastern United 2+ goals
48%
Eastern United 3+ goals
22%
Adelaide University 1+ goals
72%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
36%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eastern United (draw refunded)
60%
Adelaide University (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern United at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Adelaide University away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern United attack 1.31 + Adelaide University defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Adelaide University attack 0.73 + Eastern United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eastern United scores more
45%
level
25%
Adelaide University scores more
30%

Eastern United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eastern United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eastern United vs Adelaide University

Eastern United beat Adelaide University 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at VALO Football Centre in Adelaide.