Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eastern Suburbs vs SC Wanderers — Queensland NPL 2026

Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
B. Ferguson 90+5'
Han Eui-Gwon 80'
L. Cant 71'
B. Holliday 33'
D. Westwood-Pritchard 87'
7/13/2025Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 17Heath Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Eastern Suburbs46%
×Draw21%
SC Wanderers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Suburbs
2.10
SC Wanderers
1.74

Eastern Suburbs creates 21% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs
1.78
SC Wanderers
1.33

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs
2.14
SC Wanderers
2.41

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par
SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

SC Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw
67%
Eastern Suburbs or SC Wanderers
79%
Draw or SC Wanderers
54%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
27%
SC Wanderers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
88%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
62%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
35%
SC Wanderers 1+ goals
82%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
52%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
59%
SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.14 · 78 matches

SC Wanderers away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.41 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.78 + SC Wanderers defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.10

SC Wanderers attack 1.33 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more
46%
level
21%
SC Wanderers scores more
33%

Eastern Suburbs at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
B. Holliday
71'
L. Cant
80'
Han Eui-Gwon
87'
D. Westwood-Pritchard
90+5'
B. Ferguson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Eastern Suburbs 4–1 SC Wanderers

Eastern Suburbs beat SC Wanderers 4-1 in Queensland NPL on July 13, 2025.

Goals: B. Holliday (33'), L. Cant (71'), Han Eui-Gwon (80'), D. Westwood-Pritchard (87'), B. Ferguson (90+5').

The match was played at Heath Park in Brisbane.