Eastern Lions 2–0 Pascoe Vale: Result & Stats

Eastern Lions

FT

2 – 0

Pascoe Vale

4/29/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 11Gardiners Creek Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Eastern Lions35%

×Draw23%

Pascoe Vale41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern LionsExpected goals in this matchPascoe Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.68

Eastern Lions

1.54

Pascoe Vale

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 31 away

1.49

creates per match

1.74

1.62

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Eastern Lions

1.49

Pascoe Vale

1.74

allows per match

Eastern Lions

1.62

Pascoe Vale

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Lions ↓

Pascoe Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Eastern Lions or draw

59%

Eastern Lions or Pascoe Vale

77%

Draw or Pascoe Vale

65%

Winning margin

Eastern Lions wins by 2+

17%

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Eastern Lions 1+ goals

79%

Eastern Lions 2+ goals

45%

Eastern Lions 3+ goals

20%

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

81%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

50%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)

46%

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Lions at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Lions attack 1.49 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pascoe Vale attack 1.74 + Eastern Lions defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eastern Lions scores more

35%

level

23%

Pascoe Vale scores more

41%

Pascoe Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff