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Eastern Lions vs Northcote City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Eastern Lions
Eastern Lions
FT
0 – 3
Northcote City
Northcote City
3/16/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 6The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Eastern Lions39%
×Draw23%
Northcote City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Lions
1.67
Northcote City
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 67 away

creates per match

Eastern Lions
1.49
Northcote City
1.72

allows per match

Eastern Lions
1.62
Northcote City
1.84

finishing

Eastern Lions+0.00on par
Northcote City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Lions ↓

Northcote City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Eastern Lions or draw
61%
Eastern Lions or Northcote City
77%
Draw or Northcote City
61%

Winning margin

Eastern Lions wins by 2+
19%
Northcote City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Eastern Lions 1+ goals
81%
Eastern Lions 2+ goals
50%
Eastern Lions 3+ goals
23%
Northcote City 1+ goals
81%
Northcote City 2+ goals
50%
Northcote City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)
50%
Northcote City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Lions at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

Northcote City away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Lions attack 1.49 + Northcote City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Northcote City attack 1.72 + Eastern Lions defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eastern Lions scores more
39%
level
23%
Northcote City scores more
39%

Eastern Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eastern Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Eastern Lions 0–3 Northcote City

Northcote City beat Eastern Lions 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.