Eastern Lions 0–0 Moreland Zebras: Result & Stats

Eastern Lions

FT

0 – 0

Moreland Zebras

6/17/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18Gardiners Creek Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Eastern Lions36%

×Draw24%

Moreland Zebras40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern LionsExpected goals in this matchMoreland Zebras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.53

Eastern Lions

1.45

Moreland Zebras

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

1.49

creates per match

1.44

1.62

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Eastern Lions

1.49

Moreland Zebras

1.44

allows per match

Eastern Lions

1.62

Moreland Zebras

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Lions ↓

Moreland Zebras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Eastern Lions or draw

60%

Eastern Lions or Moreland Zebras

76%

Draw or Moreland Zebras

64%

Winning margin

Eastern Lions wins by 2+

17%

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Eastern Lions 1+ goals

77%

Eastern Lions 2+ goals

42%

Eastern Lions 3+ goals

18%

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals

78%

Moreland Zebras 2+ goals

45%

Moreland Zebras 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)

48%

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Lions at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Lions attack 1.49 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Eastern Lions defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eastern Lions scores more

36%

level

24%

Moreland Zebras scores more

40%

Moreland Zebras at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff