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Eastbourne Town vs Sheppey United — League #57 2026

Eastbourne Town
Eastbourne Town
FT
3 – 1
Sheppey United
Sheppey United
3/28/2026League #57League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eastbourne Town63%
×Draw18%
Sheppey United19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastbourne Town
2.54
Sheppey United
1.33

Eastbourne Town creates 91% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Eastbourne Town
1.75
Sheppey United
1.67

allows per match

Eastbourne Town
1.00
Sheppey United
3.33

finishing

Eastbourne Town+0.00on par
Sheppey United+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastbourne Town ↓

Sheppey United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Eastbourne Town or draw
81%
Eastbourne Town or Sheppey United
82%
Draw or Sheppey United
37%

Winning margin

Eastbourne Town wins by 2+
42%
Sheppey United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eastbourne Town 1+ goals
92%
Eastbourne Town 2+ goals
72%
Eastbourne Town 3+ goals
46%
Sheppey United 1+ goals
74%
Sheppey United 2+ goals
38%
Sheppey United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eastbourne Town (draw refunded)
77%
Sheppey United (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastbourne Town at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Sheppey United away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastbourne Town attack 1.75 + Sheppey United defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Sheppey United attack 1.67 + Eastbourne Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Eastbourne Town scores more
63%
level
18%
Sheppey United scores more
19%

Eastbourne Town at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Eastbourne Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eastbourne Town vs Sheppey United

Eastbourne Town beat Sheppey United 3-1 in League #57 on March 28, 2026.