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Eastbourne Town vs Herne Bay — League #57 2026

Eastbourne Town
Eastbourne Town
FT
3 – 1
Herne Bay
Herne Bay
9/13/2025League #57League #57 · Isthmian South East - 6The Saffrons Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eastbourne Town58%
×Draw22%
Herne Bay20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastbourne Town
1.88
Herne Bay
1.00

Eastbourne Town creates 88% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Eastbourne Town
1.75
Herne Bay
1.00

allows per match

Eastbourne Town
1.00
Herne Bay
2.00

finishing

Eastbourne Town+0.00on par
Herne Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastbourne Town ↓

Herne Bay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eastbourne Town or draw
80%
Eastbourne Town or Herne Bay
78%
Draw or Herne Bay
42%

Winning margin

Eastbourne Town wins by 2+
34%
Herne Bay wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eastbourne Town 1+ goals
85%
Eastbourne Town 2+ goals
56%
Eastbourne Town 3+ goals
29%
Herne Bay 1+ goals
63%
Herne Bay 2+ goals
26%
Herne Bay 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eastbourne Town (draw refunded)
74%
Herne Bay (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastbourne Town at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Herne Bay away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastbourne Town attack 1.75 + Herne Bay defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Herne Bay attack 1.00 + Eastbourne Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eastbourne Town scores more
58%
level
22%
Herne Bay scores more
20%

Eastbourne Town at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eastbourne Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #57: Eastbourne Town 3–1 Herne Bay

Eastbourne Town beat Herne Bay 3-1 in League #57 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at The Saffrons Football Ground in Eastbourne, East Sussex.