Eastbourne Town 0–3 Erith Town: Result & Stats

Eastbourne Town

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Erith Town

1/31/2026

League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eastbourne Town31%

×Draw25%

Erith Town44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastbourne TownExpected goals in this matchErith Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.50

Eastbourne Town

1.21

Erith Town

1.50

Erith Town creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Eastbourne Town

1.75

Erith Town

2.00

allows per match

Eastbourne Town

1.00

Erith Town

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastbourne Town+0.00on par

Erith Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastbourne Town ↓

Erith Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Eastbourne Town or draw

56%

Eastbourne Town or Erith Town

75%

Draw or Erith Town

69%

Winning margin

Eastbourne Town wins by 2+

13%

Erith Town wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Eastbourne Town 1+ goals

70%

Eastbourne Town 2+ goals

34%

Eastbourne Town 3+ goals

12%

Erith Town 1+ goals

78%

Erith Town 2+ goals

44%

Erith Town 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Eastbourne Town (draw refunded)

41%

Erith Town (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastbourne Town at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Erith Town away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastbourne Town attack 1.75 + Erith Town defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Erith Town attack 2.00 + Eastbourne Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eastbourne Town scores more

31%

level

25%

Erith Town scores more

44%

Erith Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Erith Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff