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Eastbourne Town vs Deal Town — League #57 2026

Eastbourne Town
Eastbourne Town
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Deal Town
Deal Town
1/17/2026League #57League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eastbourne Town57%
×Draw21%
Deal Town21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastbourne Town
2.04
Deal Town
1.17

Eastbourne Town creates 74% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Eastbourne Town
1.75
Deal Town
1.33

allows per match

Eastbourne Town
1.00
Deal Town
2.33

finishing

Eastbourne Town+0.00on par
Deal Town+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastbourne Town ↓

Deal Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eastbourne Town or draw
79%
Eastbourne Town or Deal Town
79%
Draw or Deal Town
43%

Winning margin

Eastbourne Town wins by 2+
34%
Deal Town wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eastbourne Town 1+ goals
87%
Eastbourne Town 2+ goals
60%
Eastbourne Town 3+ goals
33%
Deal Town 1+ goals
69%
Deal Town 2+ goals
33%
Deal Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eastbourne Town (draw refunded)
73%
Deal Town (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastbourne Town at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Deal Town away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastbourne Town attack 1.75 + Deal Town defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Deal Town attack 1.33 + Eastbourne Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eastbourne Town scores more
57%
level
21%
Deal Town scores more
21%

Eastbourne Town at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eastbourne Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eastbourne Town vs Deal Town

Eastbourne Town beat Deal Town 3-2 in League #57 on January 17, 2026.