Eastbourne Borough 0–3 Worthing: Result & Stats

Eastbourne Borough

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Worthing

R. Coleman De-Graft 90+7'

B. Dolaghan 88'

J. Spong 42'

12/26/2025

League #51 · South - 23ReachTV Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eastbourne Borough18%

×Draw23%

Worthing59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastbourne BoroughExpected goals in this matchWorthing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.77

Eastbourne Borough

0.84

Worthing

1.77

Worthing creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

0.33

creates per match

1.55

2.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Eastbourne Borough

0.33

Worthing

1.55

allows per match

Eastbourne Borough

2.00

Worthing

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastbourne Borough+0.00on par

Worthing+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastbourne Borough ↓

Worthing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Eastbourne Borough or draw

41%

Eastbourne Borough or Worthing

77%

Draw or Worthing

82%

Winning margin

Eastbourne Borough wins by 2+

5%

Worthing wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Eastbourne Borough 1+ goals

57%

Eastbourne Borough 2+ goals

21%

Eastbourne Borough 3+ goals

5%

Worthing 1+ goals

83%

Worthing 2+ goals

53%

Worthing 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Eastbourne Borough (draw refunded)

23%

Worthing (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastbourne Borough at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Worthing away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastbourne Borough attack 0.33 + Worthing defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.84

Worthing attack 1.55 + Eastbourne Borough defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Eastbourne Borough scores more

18%

level

23%

Worthing scores more

59%

Worthing at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Worthing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

J. Spong

88'

B. Dolaghan

90+7'

R. Coleman De-Graft

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff