East Stirlingshire 2–3 Lochee United

East Stirlingshire

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Lochee United

9/28/2024

FA Cup · 1st RoundFalkirk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

East Stirlingshire50%

×Draw20%

Lochee United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East StirlingshireExpected goals in this matchLochee United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.76

East Stirlingshire

2.31

Lochee United

1.76

East Stirlingshire creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

2.13

1.40

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

East Stirlingshire

2.00

Lochee United

2.13

allows per match

East Stirlingshire

1.40

Lochee United

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Stirlingshire+0.00on par

Lochee United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Stirlingshire ↓

Lochee United →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

East Stirlingshire or draw

70%

East Stirlingshire or Lochee United

80%

Draw or Lochee United

50%

Winning margin

East Stirlingshire wins by 2+

30%

Lochee United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

East Stirlingshire 1+ goals

90%

East Stirlingshire 2+ goals

67%

East Stirlingshire 3+ goals

40%

Lochee United 1+ goals

83%

Lochee United 2+ goals

52%

Lochee United 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

East Stirlingshire (draw refunded)

63%

Lochee United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

East Stirlingshire at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Lochee United away — creates 2.13, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

East Stirlingshire attack 2.00 + Lochee United defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.31

Lochee United attack 2.13 + East Stirlingshire defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

East Stirlingshire scores more

50%

level

20%

Lochee United scores more

30%

East Stirlingshire at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "East Stirlingshire will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff