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East Stirlingshire vs Inverurie Loco Works — FA Cup 2019

East Stirlingshire
East Stirlingshire
FT
5 – 0
Inverurie Loco Works
Inverurie Loco Works
12/12/2020FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundFalkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

East Stirlingshire61%
×Draw20%
Inverurie Loco Works19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Stirlingshire
2.25
Inverurie Loco Works
1.20

East Stirlingshire creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

East Stirlingshire
2.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00

allows per match

East Stirlingshire
1.40
Inverurie Loco Works
2.50

finishing

East Stirlingshire+0.00on par
Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Stirlingshire ↓

Inverurie Loco Works →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

East Stirlingshire or draw
81%
East Stirlingshire or Inverurie Loco Works
80%
Draw or Inverurie Loco Works
39%

Winning margin

East Stirlingshire wins by 2+
38%
Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

East Stirlingshire 1+ goals
89%
East Stirlingshire 2+ goals
65%
East Stirlingshire 3+ goals
39%
Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals
70%
Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals
34%
Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

East Stirlingshire (draw refunded)
76%
Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Stirlingshire at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Inverurie Loco Works away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Stirlingshire attack 2.00 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Inverurie Loco Works attack 1.00 + East Stirlingshire defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

East Stirlingshire scores more
61%
level
20%
Inverurie Loco Works scores more
19%

East Stirlingshire at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "East Stirlingshire will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: East Stirlingshire 5–0 Inverurie Loco Works

East Stirlingshire beat Inverurie Loco Works 5-0 in FA Cup on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Falkirk Community Stadium in Falkirk.