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East Stirlingshire vs Huntly — FA Cup 2019

East Stirlingshire
East Stirlingshire
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huntly
Huntly
9/23/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundFalkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

East Stirlingshire69%
×Draw17%
Huntly14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Stirlingshire
2.50
Huntly
1.03

East Stirlingshire creates 143% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

East Stirlingshire
2.00
Huntly
0.67

allows per match

East Stirlingshire
1.40
Huntly
3.00

finishing

East Stirlingshire+0.00on par
Huntly+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Stirlingshire ↓

Huntly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

East Stirlingshire or draw
86%
East Stirlingshire or Huntly
83%
Draw or Huntly
31%

Winning margin

East Stirlingshire wins by 2+
47%
Huntly wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

East Stirlingshire 1+ goals
92%
East Stirlingshire 2+ goals
71%
East Stirlingshire 3+ goals
45%
Huntly 1+ goals
64%
Huntly 2+ goals
28%
Huntly 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

East Stirlingshire (draw refunded)
83%
Huntly (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Stirlingshire at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Huntly away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Stirlingshire attack 2.00 + Huntly defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Huntly attack 0.67 + East Stirlingshire defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

East Stirlingshire scores more
69%
level
17%
Huntly scores more
14%

East Stirlingshire at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "East Stirlingshire will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: East Stirlingshire vs Huntly

Huntly beat East Stirlingshire 1-0 in FA Cup on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Falkirk Community Stadium in Falkirk.