East Riffa 3–5 Manama: Result & Stats

East Riffa

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Manama

11/27/2022

Premier League · Round 4Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

East Riffa37%

×Draw26%

Manama37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East RiffaExpected goals in this matchManama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.35

East Riffa

1.33

Manama

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 62 away

1.35

creates per match

1.32

1.37

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

East Riffa

1.35

Manama

1.32

allows per match

East Riffa

1.37

Manama

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Riffa+0.00on par

Manama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Riffa ↓

Manama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

East Riffa or draw

63%

East Riffa or Manama

74%

Draw or Manama

63%

Winning margin

East Riffa wins by 2+

16%

Manama wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

East Riffa 1+ goals

74%

East Riffa 2+ goals

38%

East Riffa 3+ goals

15%

Manama 1+ goals

74%

Manama 2+ goals

39%

Manama 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

East Riffa (draw refunded)

49%

Manama (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Riffa at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.37 · 65 matches

Manama away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Riffa attack 1.35 + Manama defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Manama attack 1.32 + East Riffa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

East Riffa scores more

37%

level

26%

Manama scores more

37%

East Riffa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "East Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff