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East Riffa vs Busaiteen — Premier League 2019

East Riffa
East Riffa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Busaiteen
Busaiteen
1/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

East Riffa44%
×Draw27%
Busaiteen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Riffa
1.37
Busaiteen
1.06

East Riffa creates 29% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 31 away

creates per match

East Riffa
1.35
Busaiteen
0.74

allows per match

East Riffa
1.37
Busaiteen
1.39

finishing

East Riffa+0.00on par
Busaiteen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Riffa ↓

Busaiteen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

East Riffa or draw
71%
East Riffa or Busaiteen
73%
Draw or Busaiteen
56%

Winning margin

East Riffa wins by 2+
21%
Busaiteen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

East Riffa 1+ goals
75%
East Riffa 2+ goals
40%
East Riffa 3+ goals
16%
Busaiteen 1+ goals
65%
Busaiteen 2+ goals
29%
Busaiteen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

East Riffa (draw refunded)
60%
Busaiteen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Riffa at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.37 · 65 matches

Busaiteen away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Riffa attack 1.35 + Busaiteen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Busaiteen attack 0.74 + East Riffa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

East Riffa scores more
44%
level
27%
Busaiteen scores more
29%

East Riffa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "East Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: East Riffa 3–0 Busaiteen

East Riffa beat Busaiteen 3-0 in Premier League on January 2, 2021.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.