East Riffa 3–1 Bahrain SC: Result & Stats

East Riffa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bahrain SC

4/5/2025

Premier League · Round 13Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

East Riffa53%

×Draw24%

Bahrain SC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East RiffaExpected goals in this matchBahrain SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.08

East Riffa

1.73

Bahrain SC

1.08

East Riffa creates 60% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 35 away

1.35

creates per match

0.80

1.37

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

East Riffa

1.35

Bahrain SC

0.80

allows per match

East Riffa

1.37

Bahrain SC

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Riffa+0.00on par

Bahrain SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Riffa ↓

Bahrain SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

East Riffa or draw

76%

East Riffa or Bahrain SC

76%

Draw or Bahrain SC

47%

Winning margin

East Riffa wins by 2+

29%

Bahrain SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

East Riffa 1+ goals

82%

East Riffa 2+ goals

52%

East Riffa 3+ goals

25%

Bahrain SC 1+ goals

66%

Bahrain SC 2+ goals

29%

Bahrain SC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

East Riffa (draw refunded)

69%

Bahrain SC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Riffa at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.37 · 65 matches

Bahrain SC away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Riffa attack 1.35 + Bahrain SC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bahrain SC attack 0.80 + East Riffa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

East Riffa scores more

53%

level

24%

Bahrain SC scores more

24%

East Riffa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "East Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff