East Riffa 1–1 Al Riffa: Result & Stats

East Riffa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Riffa

4/23/2024

Premier League · Round 17Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

East Riffa28%

×Draw25%

Al Riffa48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East RiffaExpected goals in this matchAl Riffa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.60

East Riffa

1.16

Al Riffa

1.60

Al Riffa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 71 away

1.35

creates per match

1.82

1.37

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

East Riffa

1.35

Al Riffa

1.82

allows per match

East Riffa

1.37

Al Riffa

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Riffa+0.00on par

Al Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Riffa ↓

Al Riffa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

East Riffa or draw

52%

East Riffa or Al Riffa

75%

Draw or Al Riffa

72%

Winning margin

East Riffa wins by 2+

11%

Al Riffa wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

East Riffa 1+ goals

69%

East Riffa 2+ goals

32%

East Riffa 3+ goals

11%

Al Riffa 1+ goals

80%

Al Riffa 2+ goals

47%

Al Riffa 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

East Riffa (draw refunded)

37%

Al Riffa (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Riffa at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.37 · 65 matches

Al Riffa away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Riffa attack 1.35 + Al Riffa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Riffa attack 1.82 + East Riffa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

East Riffa scores more

28%

level

25%

Al Riffa scores more

48%

Al Riffa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff