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East Riffa vs A'Ali — Premier League 2019

East Riffa
East Riffa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
A'Ali
A'Ali
5/30/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

East Riffa38%
×Draw27%
A'Ali35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Riffa
1.29
A'Ali
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 25 away

creates per match

East Riffa
1.35
A'Ali
1.04

allows per match

East Riffa
1.37
A'Ali
1.24

finishing

East Riffa+0.00on par
A'Ali+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Riffa ↓

A'Ali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

East Riffa or draw
65%
East Riffa or A'Ali
73%
Draw or A'Ali
62%

Winning margin

East Riffa wins by 2+
17%
A'Ali wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

East Riffa 1+ goals
72%
East Riffa 2+ goals
37%
East Riffa 3+ goals
14%
A'Ali 1+ goals
70%
A'Ali 2+ goals
34%
A'Ali 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

East Riffa (draw refunded)
53%
A'Ali (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Riffa at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.37 · 65 matches

A'Ali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Riffa attack 1.35 + A'Ali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

A'Ali attack 1.04 + East Riffa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

East Riffa scores more
38%
level
27%
A'Ali scores more
35%

East Riffa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "East Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: East Riffa 1–1 A'Ali

East Riffa and A'Ali drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 30, 2023.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.