East Kilbride 8–0 Whitehill Welfare: Result & Stats

East Kilbride

8 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Whitehill Welfare

9/23/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundK Park Training Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

East Kilbride71%

×Draw15%

Whitehill Welfare13%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East KilbrideExpected goals in this matchWhitehill Welfare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.19

East Kilbride

2.88

Whitehill Welfare

1.19

East Kilbride creates 142% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

3.38

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

East Kilbride

3.38

Whitehill Welfare

1.38

allows per match

East Kilbride

1.00

Whitehill Welfare

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Kilbride+0.00on par

Whitehill Welfare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Kilbride ↓

Whitehill Welfare →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

East Kilbride or draw

87%

East Kilbride or Whitehill Welfare

85%

Draw or Whitehill Welfare

29%

Winning margin

East Kilbride wins by 2+

51%

Whitehill Welfare wins by 2+

Team goals

East Kilbride 1+ goals

94%

East Kilbride 2+ goals

78%

East Kilbride 3+ goals

54%

Whitehill Welfare 1+ goals

70%

Whitehill Welfare 2+ goals

33%

Whitehill Welfare 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

East Kilbride (draw refunded)

84%

Whitehill Welfare (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

East Kilbride at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Whitehill Welfare away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

East Kilbride attack 3.38 + Whitehill Welfare defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.88

Whitehill Welfare attack 1.38 + East Kilbride defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

East Kilbride scores more

71%

level

15%

Whitehill Welfare scores more

13%

East Kilbride at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "East Kilbride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff