East Kilbride 2–6 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

East Kilbride

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 1

Inverness CT

J. Robertson 87'

D. Devine 17' (OG)

A. Stewart 62'

L. Longstaff 57', 51'

C. MacLeod 54'

P. Allan 48'

B. McKay 25'

7/22/2025

League Cup · Group Stage - 4K-Park Training Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

East Kilbride34%

×Draw20%

Inverness CT45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East KilbrideExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.21

East Kilbride

1.92

Inverness CT

2.21

Inverness CT creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

1.22

3.20

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

East Kilbride

1.40

Inverness CT

1.22

allows per match

East Kilbride

3.20

Inverness CT

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Kilbride+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Kilbride ↓

Inverness CT →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

East Kilbride or draw

55%

East Kilbride or Inverness CT

80%

Draw or Inverness CT

66%

Winning margin

East Kilbride wins by 2+

18%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

East Kilbride 1+ goals

85%

East Kilbride 2+ goals

57%

East Kilbride 3+ goals

30%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

89%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

65%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

East Kilbride (draw refunded)

43%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

East Kilbride at home — creates 1.40, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

East Kilbride attack 1.40 + Inverness CT defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.92

Inverness CT attack 1.22 + East Kilbride defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

East Kilbride scores more

34%

level

20%

Inverness CT scores more

45%

Inverness CT at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

L. Sole

17'

D. DevineOwn goal

25'

B. McKay↳ A. Stewart

48'

P. Allan

51'

L. Longstaff↳ J. Chalmers

54'

C. MacLeod↳ L. Longstaff

55'

E. Sula← R. Mimnaugh

56'

D. Clelland← J. Leitch

56'

J. Lyon← L. Spence

57'

L. Longstaff↳ R. Savage

61'

D. Wotherspoon← L. Sole

61'

62'

67'

75'

76'

S. Nixon← J. Chalmers

80'

D. Wotherspoon

80'

R. Thompson← C. MacLeod

87'

J. Robertson

East

Inverness

Munro

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

⚽2A

⚽

▼

Allan

⚽

▼

▼

⚽A

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Michael Kennedy

55'▲E. Sula←▼R. Mimnaugh

56'▲D. Clelland←▼J. Leitch

56'▲J. Lyon←▼L. Spence

East Kilbride substitutes

22Trialist1Owens14Clelland18Main24Sula27Lyon

Manager: Scott Kellacher

61'▲D. Wotherspoon←▼L. Sole

61'▲J. Alonge←▼P. Allan

75'▲S. Keogh←▼B. McKay

76'▲S. Nixon←▼J. Chalmers

80'▲R. Thompson←▼C. MacLeod

Inverness CT substitutes

21Ross10Wotherspoon16Thompson23Alonge24Nixon27Keogh29Gardiner32Thompson33Kerr

League Cup: East Kilbride 2–6 Inverness CT

Inverness CT beat East Kilbride 6-2 in League Cup on July 22, 2025.

Goals: D. Devine (17' o.g.), B. McKay (25'), P. Allan (48'), L. Longstaff (51', 57'), C. MacLeod (54'), A. Stewart (62'), J. Robertson (87').

The match was played at K-Park Training Academy in East Kilbride.

East Kilbride vs Inverness CT — League Cup 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: East Kilbride 2–6 Inverness CT