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East Kilbride vs Clyde — League Two 2018

East Kilbride
East Kilbride
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Clyde
Clyde
5/2/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 36K-Park Training Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

East Kilbride49%
×Draw23%
Clyde28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Kilbride
1.88
Clyde
1.38

East Kilbride creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 72 away

creates per match

East Kilbride
2.30
Clyde
1.46

allows per match

East Kilbride
1.30
Clyde
1.46

finishing

East Kilbride+0.00on par
Clyde+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Kilbride ↓

Clyde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

East Kilbride or draw
72%
East Kilbride or Clyde
77%
Draw or Clyde
51%

Winning margin

East Kilbride wins by 2+
27%
Clyde wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

East Kilbride 1+ goals
85%
East Kilbride 2+ goals
56%
East Kilbride 3+ goals
29%
Clyde 1+ goals
75%
Clyde 2+ goals
40%
Clyde 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

East Kilbride (draw refunded)
63%
Clyde (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Kilbride at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Clyde away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Kilbride attack 2.30 + Clyde defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.88

Clyde attack 1.46 + East Kilbride defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

East Kilbride scores more
49%
level
23%
Clyde scores more
28%

East Kilbride at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "East Kilbride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: East Kilbride vs Clyde

East Kilbride beat Clyde 5-0 in League Two on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at K-Park Training Academy in East Kilbride.