East Kilbride 5–0 Caledonian Braves: Result & Stats

East Kilbride

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Caledonian Braves

N. McLaughlin 85', 2'

R. Taylor 82'

D. MacDonald 63'

S. Forrester 52' (OG)

10/22/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundK Park Training Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

East Kilbride68%

×Draw17%

Caledonian Braves15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East KilbrideExpected goals in this matchCaledonian Braves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.17

East Kilbride

2.60

Caledonian Braves

1.17

East Kilbride creates 122% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

3.38

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

East Kilbride

3.38

Caledonian Braves

1.33

allows per match

East Kilbride

1.00

Caledonian Braves

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Kilbride+0.00on par

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Kilbride ↓

Caledonian Braves →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

East Kilbride or draw

85%

East Kilbride or Caledonian Braves

83%

Draw or Caledonian Braves

32%

Winning margin

East Kilbride wins by 2+

46%

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+

Team goals

East Kilbride 1+ goals

92%

East Kilbride 2+ goals

73%

East Kilbride 3+ goals

47%

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals

69%

Caledonian Braves 2+ goals

33%

Caledonian Braves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

East Kilbride (draw refunded)

82%

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

East Kilbride at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Caledonian Braves away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

East Kilbride attack 3.38 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.60

Caledonian Braves attack 1.33 + East Kilbride defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

East Kilbride scores more

68%

level

17%

Caledonian Braves scores more

15%

East Kilbride at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "East Kilbride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

N. McLaughlin↳ S. Bronsky

52'

S. ForresterOwn goal

63'

D. MacDonald

65'

R. Taylor← K. Munro

67'

J. Watson← Z. Butterworth

74'

C. Breadner← S. Cusick

78'

78'

81'

82'

85'

N. McLaughlin↳ B. McHugh

86'

M. Foley← N. McLaughlin

86'

A. Berry← S. Bronsky

East

Caledonian

🥅

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⚽

⚽2

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Manager: K. Rutkiewicz

65'▲R. Taylor←▼K. Munro

78'▲B. McHugh←▼R. Hughes

78'▲B. Hughes←▼A. Black

86'▲M. Foley←▼N. McLaughlin

86'▲A. Berry←▼S. Bronsky

East Kilbride substitutes

12Taylor17McHugh15Hughes18Foley14Berry16Victoria25McLean

Manager: R. Waddell

67'▲J. Watson←▼Z. Butterworth

74'▲C. Breadner←▼S. Cusick

81'▲J. Long←▼R. McNeil

Caledonian Braves substitutes

15Watson12Breadner14Long75Henry16Dempsey17Collins