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East Kilbride vs BSC Glasgow — FA Cup 2019

East Kilbride
East Kilbride
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
BSC Glasgow
BSC Glasgow
1/18/2020FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundK Park Training Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

East Kilbride54%
×Draw19%
BSC Glasgow27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Kilbride
2.48
BSC Glasgow
1.72

East Kilbride creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

East Kilbride
3.38
BSC Glasgow
2.43

allows per match

East Kilbride
1.00
BSC Glasgow
1.57

finishing

East Kilbride+0.00on par
BSC Glasgow+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Kilbride ↓

BSC Glasgow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

East Kilbride or draw
73%
East Kilbride or BSC Glasgow
81%
Draw or BSC Glasgow
46%

Winning margin

East Kilbride wins by 2+
34%
BSC Glasgow wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

East Kilbride 1+ goals
92%
East Kilbride 2+ goals
70%
East Kilbride 3+ goals
44%
BSC Glasgow 1+ goals
82%
BSC Glasgow 2+ goals
51%
BSC Glasgow 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

East Kilbride (draw refunded)
67%
BSC Glasgow (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Kilbride at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

BSC Glasgow away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Kilbride attack 3.38 + BSC Glasgow defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.48

BSC Glasgow attack 2.43 + East Kilbride defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

East Kilbride scores more
54%
level
19%
BSC Glasgow scores more
27%

East Kilbride at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "East Kilbride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: East Kilbride vs BSC Glasgow

BSC Glasgow beat East Kilbride 3-1 in FA Cup on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at K Park Training Academy in East Kilbride.