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East Fife vs The New Saints — Friendlies Clubs 2026

East Fife
East Fife
FT
1 – 1
The New Saints
The New Saints
6/23/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

East Fife22%
×Draw30%
The New Saints48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Fife
0.72
The New Saints
1.23

The New Saints creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

East Fife
0.20
The New Saints
1.25

allows per match

East Fife
1.20
The New Saints
1.25

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par
The New Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

The New Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

East Fife or draw
52%
East Fife or The New Saints
70%
Draw or The New Saints
78%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+
6%
The New Saints wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals
51%
East Fife 2+ goals
16%
East Fife 3+ goals
4%
The New Saints 1+ goals
71%
The New Saints 2+ goals
35%
The New Saints 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)
31%
The New Saints (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 0.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

The New Saints away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 0.20 + The New Saints defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.72

The New Saints attack 1.25 + East Fife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

East Fife scores more
22%
level
30%
The New Saints scores more
48%

The New Saints at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "The New Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: East Fife 1–1 The New Saints

East Fife and The New Saints drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at Bayview Stadium in Methil.