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East Fife vs Stirling Albion — League Two 2018

East Fife
East Fife
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
4/19/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 34MGM Timber Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

East Fife42%
×Draw25%
Stirling Albion33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Fife
1.50
Stirling Albion
1.31

East Fife creates 15% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 114 away

creates per match

East Fife
1.69
Stirling Albion
1.42

allows per match

East Fife
1.21
Stirling Albion
1.32

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par
Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Stirling Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

East Fife or draw
67%
East Fife or Stirling Albion
75%
Draw or Stirling Albion
58%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+
20%
Stirling Albion wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals
78%
East Fife 2+ goals
44%
East Fife 3+ goals
19%
Stirling Albion 1+ goals
73%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
38%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)
56%
Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.69 + Stirling Albion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Stirling Albion attack 1.42 + East Fife defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

East Fife scores more
42%
level
25%
Stirling Albion scores more
33%

East Fife at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "East Fife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: East Fife 2–0 Stirling Albion

East Fife beat Stirling Albion 2-0 in League Two on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at MGM Timber Bayview Stadium in Methil.