East Fife 2–1 Kelty Hearts: Result & Stats

East Fife

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kelty Hearts

A. Munro 52', 40'

J. Graham 45'

8/23/2025

League #183 · Round 4MGM Timber Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

East Fife35%

×Draw26%

Kelty Hearts39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East FifeExpected goals in this matchKelty Hearts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.37

East Fife

1.27

Kelty Hearts

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.10

creates per match

1.14

1.60

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

East Fife

1.10

Kelty Hearts

1.14

allows per match

East Fife

1.60

Kelty Hearts

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Kelty Hearts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

East Fife or draw

61%

East Fife or Kelty Hearts

74%

Draw or Kelty Hearts

65%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+

15%

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals

72%

East Fife 2+ goals

36%

East Fife 3+ goals

14%

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

75%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

40%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)

47%

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.10 + Kelty Hearts defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kelty Hearts attack 1.14 + East Fife defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

East Fife scores more

35%

level

26%

Kelty Hearts scores more

39%

Kelty Hearts at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kelty Hearts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

E. McLeod

40'

A. Munro↳ M. McKenna

45'

J. Graham↳ C. Johnston

52'

A. Munro↳ M. McKenna

62'

S. Mercer← M. Thomas

62'

J. Teasdale← A. Ferguson

65'

T. Goss← R. Jones

69'

75'

75'

90+5'

90+5'

90+5'

90+7'

90+5'

L. Carroll← J. Graham

East

Kelty

1

Armour

2

▼

Thomas

3

Paterson

6

▼

Ferguson

35

Brydon

15

Clay

14

⚽

▼

23

8

10

9

A

Johnston

1

Adams

2

▼

McLeod

19

⚽2

Munro

3

▼

Newton

5

Easton

6

McManus

4

▼

Millar

22

A

McKenna

27

▼

Jones

9

Austin

23

Culbert

Manager: Richard Menzies Campbell

65'▲T. Goss←▼R. Jones

69'▲L. Latona←▼K. Millar

75'▲J. Norey←▼E. McLeod

75'▲R. Peggie←▼L. Newton

East Fife substitutes

21Thomson7Norey8Slattery11Peggie12Nicol17Latona20Bah24Goss

Manager: Thomas O'Ware

62'▲S. Mercer←▼M. Thomas

62'▲J. Teasdale←▼A. Ferguson

90+5'▲L. Carroll←▼J. Graham

Kelty Hearts substitutes

21Adamson12Carroll20Mercer19Bexfield30Leitch24Teasdale