East Fife 1–1 Heart Of Midlothian: Result & Stats

East Fife

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Heart Of Midlothian

7/27/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 7Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

East Fife34%

×Draw24%

Heart Of Midlothian42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East FifeExpected goals in this matchHeart Of Midlothian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.60

East Fife

1.40

Heart Of Midlothian

1.60

Heart Of Midlothian creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

1.87

creates per match

1.93

1.27

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

East Fife

1.87

Heart Of Midlothian

1.93

allows per match

East Fife

1.27

Heart Of Midlothian

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par

Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

East Fife or draw

58%

East Fife or Heart Of Midlothian

76%

Draw or Heart Of Midlothian

66%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+

15%

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals

75%

East Fife 2+ goals

41%

East Fife 3+ goals

17%

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

80%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

47%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)

44%

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.87 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.93 + East Fife defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

East Fife scores more

34%

level

24%

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

42%

Heart Of Midlothian at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff