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East Fife vs Dunfermline — League Cup 2018

East Fife
East Fife
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
7/9/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2MGM Timber Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

East Fife37%
×Draw24%
Dunfermline39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Fife
1.54
Dunfermline
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

East Fife
1.87
Dunfermline
1.94

allows per match

East Fife
1.27
Dunfermline
1.22

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par
Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Dunfermline →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

East Fife or draw
61%
East Fife or Dunfermline
76%
Draw or Dunfermline
63%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+
18%
Dunfermline wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals
79%
East Fife 2+ goals
45%
East Fife 3+ goals
20%
Dunfermline 1+ goals
80%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
47%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)
48%
Dunfermline (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.87 + Dunfermline defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dunfermline attack 1.94 + East Fife defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

East Fife scores more
37%
level
24%
Dunfermline scores more
39%

Dunfermline at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: East Fife vs Dunfermline

Dunfermline beat East Fife 2-0 in League Cup on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at MGM Timber Bayview Stadium in Methil.