East Fife 3–2 Buckie Thistle: Result & Stats

East Fife

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Buckie Thistle

7/19/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 6MGM Timber Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

East Fife71%

×Draw16%

Buckie Thistle13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East FifeExpected goals in this matchBuckie Thistle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.14

East Fife

2.81

Buckie Thistle

1.14

East Fife creates 146% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

1.87

creates per match

1.00

1.27

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

East Fife

1.87

Buckie Thistle

1.00

allows per match

East Fife

1.27

Buckie Thistle

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par

Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Buckie Thistle →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

East Fife or draw

87%

East Fife or Buckie Thistle

84%

Draw or Buckie Thistle

29%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+

51%

Buckie Thistle wins by 2+

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals

94%

East Fife 2+ goals

76%

East Fife 3+ goals

52%

Buckie Thistle 1+ goals

68%

Buckie Thistle 2+ goals

32%

Buckie Thistle 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)

85%

Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.87 + Buckie Thistle defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.81

Buckie Thistle attack 1.00 + East Fife defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

East Fife scores more

71%

level

16%

Buckie Thistle scores more

13%

East Fife at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "East Fife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff