East Bengal 1–1 Real Kashmir: Result & Stats

East Bengal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Kashmir

J. Justin 56'

Lalramchullova 46' (OG)

12/28/2018

I-League · Round 11Yuba Bharati Krirangan (Salt Lake Stadium) (Kalkātā (Kolkata), West Bengal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

East Bengal35%

×Draw28%

Real Kashmir37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East BengalExpected goals in this matchReal Kashmir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.16

East Bengal

1.13

Real Kashmir

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 60 away

1.10

creates per match

1.12

1.20

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

East Bengal

1.10

Real Kashmir

1.12

allows per match

East Bengal

1.20

Real Kashmir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Bengal+0.00on par

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Bengal ↓

Real Kashmir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

East Bengal or draw

63%

East Bengal or Real Kashmir

72%

Draw or Real Kashmir

65%

Winning margin

East Bengal wins by 2+

14%

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

East Bengal 1+ goals

68%

East Bengal 2+ goals

31%

East Bengal 3+ goals

11%

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

69%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

32%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

East Bengal (draw refunded)

49%

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Bengal at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Bengal attack 1.10 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + East Bengal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

East Bengal scores more

35%

level

28%

Real Kashmir scores more

37%

Real Kashmir at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

LalramchullovaOwn goal

56'

J. Justin

78'

R. Das← D. Bhat

86'

K. Qayoom← G. Krizo

90'

N. Tamang← F. Ganie

East

Real

1

2

5

6

7

▼

Ganie

9

▼

15

13

18

10

▼

16

40

3

2

27

🥅

41

20

16

8

17

30

22

⚽

Justin

Manager: Alejandro Menéndez

East Bengal substitutes

4Debnath1Kadavath5Singh21Longvah25Mallick26Singh38Sarkar

Manager: D. Robertson

78'▲R. Das←▼D. Bhat

86'▲K. Qayoom←▼G. Krizo

90'▲N. Tamang←▼F. Ganie

Real Kashmir substitutes

11Das8Qayoom23Tamang3Hammad12Bhutia22Bhat25Meitei