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East Bengal vs Railway — Calcutta Premier Division 2026

East Bengal
East Bengal
FT
2 – 0
Railway
Railway
8/9/2023Calcutta Premier DivisionCalcutta Premier Division · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

East Bengal83%
×Draw17%
Railway0%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Bengal
1.75
Railway
0.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

East Bengal
2.00
Railway
0.00

allows per match

East Bengal
0.00
Railway
1.50

finishing

East Bengal+0.00on par
Railway+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

100%No
  • No100

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Bengal ↓

Railway →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–030%
1–10%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–027%
2–10%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (30%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

East Bengal or draw
100%
East Bengal or Railway
83%
Draw or Railway
17%

Winning margin

East Bengal wins by 2+
52%
Railway wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

East Bengal 1+ goals
83%
East Bengal 2+ goals
52%
East Bengal 3+ goals
25%
Railway 1+ goals
0%
Railway 2+ goals
0%
Railway 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

East Bengal (draw refunded)
100%
Railway (draw refunded)
0%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
0%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Bengal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Railway away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Bengal attack 2.00 + Railway defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Railway attack 0.00 + East Bengal defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

East Bengal scores more
83%
level
17%
Railway scores more
0%

East Bengal at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "East Bengal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calcutta Premier Division: East Bengal 2–0 Railway

East Bengal beat Railway 2-0 in Calcutta Premier Division on August 9, 2023.