East Bengal 0–1 Indian Arrows: Result & Stats

East Bengal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Indian Arrows

2/1/2020

I-League · Round 11Salt Lake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

East Bengal43%

×Draw30%

Indian Arrows27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East BengalExpected goals in this matchIndian Arrows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.85

East Bengal

1.16

Indian Arrows

0.85

East Bengal creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 26 away

0.86

creates per match

0.42

1.29

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

East Bengal

0.86

Indian Arrows

0.42

allows per match

East Bengal

1.29

Indian Arrows

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Bengal+0.00on par

Indian Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Bengal ↓

Indian Arrows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

East Bengal or draw

73%

East Bengal or Indian Arrows

70%

Draw or Indian Arrows

57%

Winning margin

East Bengal wins by 2+

18%

Indian Arrows wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

East Bengal 1+ goals

69%

East Bengal 2+ goals

32%

East Bengal 3+ goals

11%

Indian Arrows 1+ goals

57%

Indian Arrows 2+ goals

21%

Indian Arrows 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

East Bengal (draw refunded)

62%

Indian Arrows (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Bengal at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Indian Arrows away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Bengal attack 0.86 + Indian Arrows defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Indian Arrows attack 0.42 + East Bengal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

East Bengal scores more

43%

level

30%

Indian Arrows scores more

27%

East Bengal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "East Bengal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff