East Bengal 1–2 Goa: Result & Stats

East Bengal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Goa

10/21/2023

Indian Super League · Round 4Kalinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

East Bengal31%

×Draw25%

Goa44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East BengalExpected goals in this matchGoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.58

East Bengal

1.29

Goa

1.58

Goa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 72 away

1.08

creates per match

1.67

1.49

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

East Bengal

1.08

Goa

1.67

allows per match

East Bengal

1.49

Goa

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Bengal+0.00on par

Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Bengal ↓

Goa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

East Bengal or draw

56%

East Bengal or Goa

75%

Draw or Goa

69%

Winning margin

East Bengal wins by 2+

13%

Goa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

East Bengal 1+ goals

72%

East Bengal 2+ goals

37%

East Bengal 3+ goals

14%

Goa 1+ goals

79%

Goa 2+ goals

47%

Goa 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

East Bengal (draw refunded)

41%

Goa (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Bengal at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

Goa away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.51 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Bengal attack 1.08 + Goa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.29

Goa attack 1.67 + East Bengal defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

East Bengal scores more

31%

level

25%

Goa scores more

44%

Goa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff