Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

East Atlanta vs Tri-Cities — USL League Two 2018

East Atlanta
East Atlanta
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
5/21/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 9RYSA Soccerplex Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

East Atlanta33%
×Draw22%
Tri-Cities45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Atlanta
1.61
Tri-Cities
1.91

Tri-Cities creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

East Atlanta
1.39
Tri-Cities
1.74

allows per match

East Atlanta
2.08
Tri-Cities
1.84

finishing

East Atlanta+0.00on par
Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Atlanta ↓

Tri-Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

East Atlanta or draw
55%
East Atlanta or Tri-Cities
78%
Draw or Tri-Cities
67%

Winning margin

East Atlanta wins by 2+
16%
Tri-Cities wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

East Atlanta 1+ goals
80%
East Atlanta 2+ goals
48%
East Atlanta 3+ goals
22%
Tri-Cities 1+ goals
85%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
57%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

East Atlanta (draw refunded)
42%
Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Atlanta at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.08 · 38 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Atlanta attack 1.39 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + East Atlanta defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

East Atlanta scores more
33%
level
22%
Tri-Cities scores more
45%

Tri-Cities at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tri-Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: East Atlanta vs Tri-Cities

Tri-Cities beat East Atlanta 3-2 in USL League Two on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at RYSA Soccerplex Field 1 in Conyers, Georgia.