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Džiugas Telšiai vs Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
1 – 2
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
A. Lipskis 17'
L. Zukauskas 82'
M. Mikulenas 59'
10/27/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 30Telšių centrinis stadionas (Telšiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai57%
×Draw21%
Žalgiris II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
2.14
Žalgiris II
1.25

Džiugas Telšiai creates 71% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 94 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
2.04
Žalgiris II
1.61

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
0.88
Žalgiris II
2.24

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
78%
Džiugas Telšiai or Žalgiris II
79%
Draw or Žalgiris II
43%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
35%
Žalgiris II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
88%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
63%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
36%
Žalgiris II 1+ goals
71%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
36%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
72%
Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Žalgiris II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.24 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.04 + Žalgiris II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.14

Žalgiris II attack 1.61 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
57%
level
21%
Žalgiris II scores more
22%

Džiugas Telšiai at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Lipskis
59'
M. Mikulenas
68'
G. Sarkis
82'
L. Zukauskas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Džiugas Telšiai 1–2 Žalgiris II

Žalgiris II beat Džiugas Telšiai 2-1 in 1 Lyga on October 27, 2019.

Goals: A. Lipskis (17'), M. Mikulenas (59'), L. Zukauskas (82').

The match was played at Telšių centrinis stadionas (Telšiai).